So we kinda fell off the radar ... sorry 'bout that ...
What happened?
After extending the CrowdTilt campaign a couple times we put a pin in that on July 27th of 2014. At that time Bay Alarm approached us with an offer to individually contract with the folks who wanted to do that. Over the next couple of months about 35 people signed up with Bay. There was an existing group of Bay Alarm Patrol customers already. 15 homes. So about 50 people are currently receiving patrol coverage from Bay.
How's that working for ya'?
Okay. Not great. Bay is totally doing what it should by contract. They make the rounds and they respond when we call. Their's is a reactive business model however. We are struggling with how to change that if it can be changed.
We are, as of this post, assessing broad measures of crime to see if there is an impact. There has been an improvement in crime overall this year so there is a question as to the effectiveness of the patrols in that kind of environment. We have theories.
The first job is getting all the data from the the City. Stay tuned.
What went wrong?
The NUDL area, again, is from Lincoln Ave, to Coolidge Ave, and from MacArthur Blvd, to essentially a line defined by an extension of Coolidge Terrace. We found some interesting phenomena as we canvassed the area. My opinion is that these various factors became death by 1000 tiny cuts.
What happened?
After extending the CrowdTilt campaign a couple times we put a pin in that on July 27th of 2014. At that time Bay Alarm approached us with an offer to individually contract with the folks who wanted to do that. Over the next couple of months about 35 people signed up with Bay. There was an existing group of Bay Alarm Patrol customers already. 15 homes. So about 50 people are currently receiving patrol coverage from Bay.
How's that working for ya'?
Okay. Not great. Bay is totally doing what it should by contract. They make the rounds and they respond when we call. Their's is a reactive business model however. We are struggling with how to change that if it can be changed.
We are, as of this post, assessing broad measures of crime to see if there is an impact. There has been an improvement in crime overall this year so there is a question as to the effectiveness of the patrols in that kind of environment. We have theories.
The first job is getting all the data from the the City. Stay tuned.
What went wrong?
The NUDL area, again, is from Lincoln Ave, to Coolidge Ave, and from MacArthur Blvd, to essentially a line defined by an extension of Coolidge Terrace. We found some interesting phenomena as we canvassed the area. My opinion is that these various factors became death by 1000 tiny cuts.
Mortgage crisis hang over
On the surface this area looks like it is made up of owner occupied single family homes. I am guessing as a result of the mortgage crisis there are in fact a larger percentage or rented homes than I expected. That could be due to either distressed owners or turnover to investors.
We found renters are almost always not interested in paying for the patrol. Some renters are in though. We did have a couple landlords say they would, but most did not.
Retirees on fixed incomes with little to spare
As this area is also populated by a lot of long term residents, probably well over 50% still, there are many people who are retired, on fixed incomes, with little to spare. $30.00 is a non starter for them.
"Racial Profiling"
I put this in quotes because that was the term, pre Michael Brown & Eric Garner, that was used to surface the objection. Today it might surface under the heading white privilege or unconscious bias.
After digging into this a little an listening more, I believe this is really about trust. First, a lack of trust by people of color, some Black folks in particular, of anyone looking like law enforcement. Second a lack of trust in what a group of mostly middle aged white people were doing organizing a patrol in the first place. I was nearly blind to how deeply rooted these feelings are with some people.
I will first say that these feeling are totally justified. If I was the subject of years of systematic bias I would be suspicious too.
Next I will say that, to date, this problem to my knowledge has not been realized in any of the private patrol areas I am aware of. Maybe I missed something I should be aware of.
Finally I will say, for the record, that not all people of color feel this way. We, in fact, have one Black person in the current NUDL organizing group and we had another before the end of the CrowdTilt campaign. Additionally one of our former board members has children who are Black. That's not to say NUDL did anything wonderful. It is to say that the subject is VERY complex.
To underscore that, some of the loudest objections to profiling I heard were at another groups community meeting. These were expressed by a person of middle eastern heritage. Given what this person has likely experienced since 911 I completely understand.
Regardless, I know this impacted out ability to attract members and continues to impact the effectiveness of crime prevention all across this country.
Time suckage
I, for one, ran out of time and energy. This required multiple days of door to door canvassing, answering a seemingly endless stream of e-mails and posting on Nextdoor.com, taking, making and replying to phone calls & voice mails, setting up meetings, attending meetings ... the list goes on.
Other patrol associations are seeing attrition and are strapped for the time and resources to recruit. If we go to do this again, a fee for a staff person or management company will be built in, I assure you of that.
NIMBY
There are a couple of pockets in the NUDL area where the residents believe they have historically had much less crime. There were two blocks in particular where NUDL was just not a sell. These totaled about 50 homes. So maybe we lost 5 or 6 members compared to blocks where they feel like crime is a problem. Here again, we need data to assess these perceptions.
If this is true, what can we learn from these blocks? Are there others in Oakland exhibiting the same outcomes?
NIMBY
There are a couple of pockets in the NUDL area where the residents believe they have historically had much less crime. There were two blocks in particular where NUDL was just not a sell. These totaled about 50 homes. So maybe we lost 5 or 6 members compared to blocks where they feel like crime is a problem. Here again, we need data to assess these perceptions.
If this is true, what can we learn from these blocks? Are there others in Oakland exhibiting the same outcomes?
Perceptions of effectiveness & statistics
I think people fell into two big group on the pro-forma effectiveness:
- Even if the data is off by a lot it's better than no improvement.
- Even if the patrol responds fast, the crooks are going to be here and gone, so what's the difference?
So you have people with a sense of the macro level impact and people who are totally focussed on what it means to them on a per event basis.
Of course there were a few data nerds like me that wanted to dismiss it because the data sucks. Well, all data sucks. You have to do what you can with it to improve your judgement.
As I said above we are looking at the bigger data set now to see if we can figure it out. Right now there are too many narrow, one off PowerPoint slides floating around touting that one patrol or another is effective. Without assessment and analysis of context these are interesting but not decisive. If we find that yes, these patrols do show a 40% decrease in crime as compared to not-patrolled areas I will be back out knocking on doors and petitioning the City to start up patrols by civilian OPD staff.
That would be the biggest no brainer of the century, right?
What's next for NUDL?
Good question. The six or seven organizers remaining will be meeting over the next couple of months to brainstorm. The list of possible actions is long.
I feel like we need to find one thing that is highly leveraged with a lasting, positive impact on public safety. It also needs to be something we can do well.
Volunteer organizations are simply awash in half baked & half done efforts. Great motives & intentions. But, people can't or don't hang in there to see them to completion. I don't personally want to see NUDL be like that. I'd rather shut it down totally.
That's my nickel. My fellow organizers can probably add different perspectives and I invite everyone to do so.
